The EURJPY was technically a mess yesterday. Like I said, with important economic data and events this week, technical failure is not a big surprise and I think it’s not the best time to trade now. On h4 chart below we can see that once again, price break above the trendline but we have some downside pressure (rebound) early today in Asian session. While my trendline can not be a good guide during news time, I still believe that it’s still a good technical tool at this phase especially after all the important economic data and events are over and market has make decision where to go, and we just need to follow it. Immediate support at 133.75 and the trendline area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum. Initial resistance at 136.06 area.
The GBPJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, slipped above my trendline resistance (red), topped at 151.29 but further bullish momentum was rejected as price back below the trendline early today in Asian session. Technically, a false breakout tend to lead to significant downside pullback. On fundamental side, focus is now on BoE decision today, on whether the BoE is going to expand the quantitative easing program. If that happen, Sterling should be under heavy pressure and technical false breakout which lead to further bearish momentum should get some support testing at least 147.80 even 146.36 area. If not, the bullish momentum should continue towards 153.20 area. I think it’s better to wait until BoE statement.
The AUDUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 0.9143 but closed lower at 0.9094. On h4 chart below we can see that price slipped above my trendline resistance but can not stay convincingly above the trendline so far, so I think it’s too early for a bullish scenario unless we have consistent movement above the trendline. Remember that false breakout usually lead to significant downside momentum. With the Fed decision to keep rate near zero for “an extended period” I think the USD Dollar should be less interesting for investors and I prefer a bullish scenario. Immediate support at 0.9050. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum. Immediate resistance at 0.9143 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area should be seen as bullish scenario confirmation re-testing 0.9270 area.