Bias: The downside looks pretty strong now…
Loss of 124.09 has opened up a stronger bearish structure and this looks set to continue. However, there does seem to be some support around the 119.87-00 area and again at 119.59. Watch these for signs of a possible correction higher. Only an earlier break above 121.13 pivot resistance would provide earlier relief. If seen we need be cautious but there is then suggestion that we could see a correction back above 121.76 and towards the 122.49-63 area at least. Take care if we get this high. Only above 123.01 sees 124.10.
12th January: With the break of the 124.09 support the door is open for losses. Thus only back above this pivot area would provide relief of the downside for gains back to 124.69 and 125.9.
Loss of 124.09 is bearish and we have already seen quite a loss already. I suspect this should follow-through directly with the 121.15 and 121.76 areas likely to cap any possible correction. More likely we shall see direct resumption of the downtrend for 119.87-00 at least and more likely 119.59. Take care here as this could cause a pullback higher - even a modest reversal. Below 119.50 extends losses to 119.15 but again this should hold if seen.
9th January: The 124.12 support has held but the recovery hasn't been convincing yet. Thus wait for loss and if seen then watch supports at 122.39-72 and below there probably all the way to 119.59 and 117.86.
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The 124.13 support in Wave ^c has held and while it does it suggests a move back to the 76.4% projection in Wave ^d at 128.70. Below 124.00 opens up much stronger losses to the 138.2% projection of the 131.01-123.69 decline at 119.59 and possibly the 161.8% at 117.86.
I have had to change the wave structure completely. I am working with a possible larger triangle now (though this is tentative) and with the 131.02 high being Wave ^b it would imply a 76.4% projection in Wave ^d at 119.59 which is also where Wave (c) will have extended by 138.2%.
Below there would open up potential strong losses. If the 123.69 low was actually Wave i then a 176.4% projection in Wave iii implies a target at 116.79.