Bias: I suspect we'll see a reversal soon but there is risk of early slippage - wait for breaks
We are either seeing a double bottom or there'll be an initial slip below 134.07 before a reversal higher. If the downside does slip - which I feel is the risk - then the 134.93-09 area should cap. Otherwise a break below 134.07 sees extension to 133.20-53 before higher. Thus we should be looking for bullish reversal patterns at the lower 133.20-53 support or a continuation pattern around the 135.09 resistance. Once this is seen we should then look for the underlying uptrend to resume. Breach would signal strength back above the 135.50 pivot resistance en route 136.44. Take care here as this could cause a pullback. Next resistance is then seen at 136.97, 137.30 and then 137.83...
17th August: We are so close to the 134.07 low that we need confirm a reversal higher and I feel this would come on a break above 134.93-09 which should then take us back to 136.44 and 137.83.
The 134.60 support gave way and led to a test to just above the 134.07 low. Breach would extend losses to 133.20-53. This is important support and must hold to avoid stronger losses. If we do see a move through this support then look for extension into the 132.38-64 area but take here too as this would probably generate a pullback. Next support is then seen at 131.43 and then at 130.34-75 but I suspect we'd need a pullback at 132.38-64 before seeing these losses...
17th August: If the 134.90-09 area caps then look for a move down through to 133.20-53 at least. If this breaks then the larger trend would appear to have reversed and we can expect to see losses towards 131.43 and probably 130.34.
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