Bias: The 134.70-81 area needs to hold to retain a bullish stance for 135.86-02 - else breach extends losses to 133.70
Gains were seen as expected and actually broke above 135.25 but then stalled at 135.47. While the 134.70-81 area can support I still feel there is room for one more push higher. A move from here back above 135.29-47 would extend the rally to 135.86 and possibly 136.02. However, this does look like being strong enough to hold. Therefore, any stronger bullish stance will require a break above 136.05 which would then provoke an even stronger rally towards 136.67-79. Again we should take care here also.
22nd September: USDJPY provided the support for a stronger push higher and this appears to have potential to 135.86-02 at least. Only above here would imply follow-through to 136.67-79. Then note resistance at 137.95-138.31 and the 138.70 high.
Momentum is beginning to slow but I feel the greater risk is for one more attempt higher that I favor holding at 135.86-136.02. Look for a bearish reversal pattern here - and preferably a bearish divergence. Only an earlier breach of the 134.70 support would reverse the upward move directly and trigger follow-through lower below 134.30 and to the 133.70 corrective low. I suspect this area should generate a pullback at least. Next major support is at 132.45.
22nd September: If we see 135.86-02 with a bearish divergence then I feel there is a strong chance that we'll see a correction at the very least. A move back below 134.70-90 will confirm...
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