Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks - we may remain in a trading range
The break above the 133.26-44 resistance did take price higher to stall at 133.96. This has caused a dip lower although it hasn't been particularly strong yet. My own preference is for the consolidation to continue which means another dip lower. Thus any stronger bullish stance is going to need a break back above 133.91-96 which, if seen, should extend the rally to the 134.50 high and probably further to 135.48 at least. Take care here as this may cause a correction. Breach would maintain the upward momentum for 136.54-78.
24th March: The rally has been much stronger than anticipated and seems now to have a minimum target at 134.46-135.21. If this breaks then the 136.10-41 area comes into focus.
The push higher to stall 5 pips below the 133.96 resistance came with a bearish divergence in the hourly chart. I therefore feel the risk is for losses but within a sideways trading range. First support is at 133.00 but I feel this will quickly break and extend the decline to 132.33, 131.80 and down into the 131.05-42 support area. I see this holding and generating a recovery. Thus only below 131.00 would maintain the decline below the 130.76 low and onto 130.04 at least and probably 129.25 and 128.20...
25th March: I feel we may have seen an intermediate (but not final) high at 134.50. If so then there is risk of losses to 127.30 & 126.68 which I think will hold. However, note the next support at 125.06. Only below here would trigger stronger losses.
For a full description of how to use the analysis please see the Analysis page of my website. The prior day's set ups for potential trading levels highlighted in the report are now available on the Daily Forecast page of my web site.