Bias: We're going to have to watch the 132.01-12 and 132.63 resistance areas closely for signs of losses
Losses were seen as expected which stalled just above the lower 128.93 support. The pullback higher came as anticipated and we now need to watch two resistance areas closely for signs of a peak. The first is at the 132.01-12 area and the second at around 132.63. If we are going to see the downtrend resume then these are the barriers. Therefore, only look for stronger gains if the higher132.63 resistance breaks. If seen then expect follow-through to 133.00 and probably 133.32-45 and then the 133.95-134.27 resistance area.
2nd October: I am treating this decline as a complex correction that could still visit the 128.93-129.45 area before we see a rally. Assuming this occurs it will resurrect the 132.14 minimum target and at most 132.63 before the underlying downtrend resumes.
The retracement targets were identified on Friday and are at 132.01-14 and 132.63. Watch for bearish reversal patterns to develop. If seen then we should see losses push right back down to Friday's 129.02 low. This could generate a correction higher but I feel then we should sell into that pullback as the next leg lower towards 128.22-49 and 127.66.
5th October: The 128.94-129.27 area provided the expected resistance and now while 132.01-14 (max 132.63) caps I feel we should see losses to new lows over time.
For a full description of how to use the analysis please see the Analysis page of my website. The prior day's set ups for potential trading levels highlighted in the report are now available on the Daily Forecast page of my web site.