Bias: While 1.4217-37 caps I still feel there should be further losses below 1.4153
The failure at 1.4445 did not come as a surprise but the drop below 1.4225 has tended to argue against direct follow-through higher. There is immediate resistance at 1.4217-37 which I feel will cap today. Thus, any bullish stance will require a break above 1.4240 and if seen would suggest a return above 1.4280 and to the 1.4330-40 pivot resistance at least. Take care there. Breach would suggest a return to the 1.4445 high...
10th August: Failure at 1.4445 argues against direct gains at this time and we'd need a break above 1.4237 and 1.4330-80 to begin to think of reviving this. Even then we'd have to be careful of the risk of sideways consolidation below 1.4408.
The drop below 1.4225 does seem to open up a return to June's low at 1.3747. There are some complications but for the moment I feel that while 1.4217-37 caps we should see additional losses. From this resistance a push back down to Friday's 1.4153 low should be seen at a minimum and to 1.4110-20 at least. If this is going to turn into a more aggressive move then this must break and should then generate sufficient bearish momentum to see a move all the way down to 1.3985-93.
10th August: As long at 1.4217-37 caps there is still a good risk that we should see losses through 1.4153 for 1.3985-93 initially and eventually the 1.3747 low. However, with uncertain positions elsewhere we will need to monitor this at all stages.
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