Bias: Overall I remain bearish but a break above 1.3277 would threaten a deeper pullback higher
Loss of 1.3288 was the signal for additional losses which very nearly reached the 1.3128 target. In many ways I feel the greater fit is for more direct losses but we're close to a break higher at 1.3277. Thus if this resistance is broken look for the upside to push up through 1.3330 and 1.3375 en route 1.3412 minimum and more likely to 1.3430-44. Take care in this area as this could force the next move lower. Breach implies extension to 1.3606-45 at least.
13th January: Yesterday's losses were in line with expectations and feel there is a good risk of seeing a test towards the 1.2890 area from where a larger recovery. Only an earlier break above 1.3610 risks this being seen earlier.
Solid losses were seen once the 1.3288 support was broken stalling just above the 1.3128 support. If there is any chance of losses continuing directly then we'll need to see the 1.3277 area cap. From here a move back down below 1.3200-20 would look more like causing follow-through. There is minor support at 1.3169 and then at the 1.3128-39 area. More aggressive losses will require a breach of 1.3128 and if seen would provide the catalyst for extension to 1.3041 and I feel a more probable target around 1.2961-92.
9th January: We haven't seen the key 1.3840 resistance overcome yet and until then we still have chance of seeing a break below yesterday's 1.3533 low to extend losses back to 1.3311 and eventually lower with the 1.2800-1.3000 target still possible.
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
Well, the 1.3798 high held and we have seen deep losses to 1.3379 so far. This looks to be internal Wave iii of a new Wave a. A 50% retracement in Wave iv should price below 1.3570-80 and from there a move down to the 1.3311 low (or just around it) would then see Wave a end. This should then cause a correction in Wave b and eventually a Wave c that has an ideal target around the 76.4% retracement in Wave ^b at 1.2892. However, once Wave b is complete I shall have to look for likely projections in Wave c but I suspect it may be a little lower that 1.2892.
The more direct losses provide a little uncertainty over whether we'll see much of a pullback. If I have any preferred structure it is that we saw Wave a at 1.3325 and Wave b at 1.3430. This provides a wave equality projection in Wave c at 1.2920 (so close to the 1.2892 target) and a 138.2% projection at 1.2776. This will require the 1.3277 resistance to cap to maintain direct losses - initially to the internal Wave iii projection around 1.2961-92. Below 1.32 and 1.3125 will confirm. An earlier break above 1.3277 would suggest a pullback in alternative Wave b to the 41.4-50.0% retracement at 1.3412-44.