Bias: I remain overall bullish but do still see risk of one final correction lower€¦
Losses seen as expected that stalled just below the 1.3159 support. It is not 100% clear that the correction is complete but at the same time we must remember the larger risk is higher. I see resistance at 1.3266-96 and while this holds there is still chance of a dip to the 1.3087-1.3111 area again. Thus only a direct break above 1.3296 would see the uptrend resume directly. If so then the first stop would appear to be around 1.3343 and m ore likely 1.3385. After a correction from there look for gains to reach 1.3450-80.
16th April: The 1.3159-1.3203 area has seen minor slippage and I can't rule out another to 1.3087-1.3111. However, I remain bullish and should soon see this extend back to the 1.3737 high en route and eventual target around 1.43-1.44 approximately.
Losses developed well and has done enough to complete the correction. However, there is a small chance that we could see one more dip before the upside resumes. For this we need the 1.3266-96 area to cap. A move down from this resistance that breaks below 1.3230 and 1.3199 would raise the chance of a retest of yesterday's 1.3146 low and after a correction it is possible to see the 1.3087-1.3111 area tested. I feel this will hold. Thus only below 1.3087 would open the risk of seeing 1.2930-45 & 1.2897.
15th April: The call for a stronger move lower was a bit too strong with the 1.3070-92 support holding. If there is to be any further losses then this area must break and would then resurrect the 1.2930-68 support and at most 1.2897 - but then see a recovery.
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