Bias: I remain overall bullish but much depends on the first moves today
The fact this didn't reach 1.5006 before the correction was annoying but I have noted an alternate projection that identifies 1.4967 as an intermediate target. However, what is confusing is the pullback at 1.4842 is too deep for the final projection higher to reach the ideal 1.5119-35 target. If we see the 1.4870-80 area hold any correction from 1.4967 then there is a stronger chance of reaching that target. If we see a direct break higher then there is a risk that we fall short at 1.5038-72. Thus, observe what happens first and be aware of these two resistance levels and wait for a bearish reversal pattern to develop - preferably with bearish divergences in both hourly & 4-hour charts.
Now, I am bullish but because the correction to 1.4842 was deep - but in line with the alternative structure I am looking at - I need to explain where the downside risk will become stronger. If we start seeing an ascending triangle then the 1.4870-80 area should support. If the 1.4870 support breaks then the full retracement in this structure is 1.4820 - but this would make the upside target even harder to achieve... But then perhaps a triangle can develop. Thus overall, the 1.4820-42 area appears to point to a reversal lower... If seen it would threaten a move to 1.4724 at least and probably the 1.4650-73 corrective lows.
16th October: I would still prefer to look for the 1.5119-35 area to be reached first but would also observe the 1.5038-72 area. Only an earlier break of 1.4820 followed by 1.4650-73 would signal the end of the uptrend…
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