Bias: Cautiously I feel we shall see another attempt lower today towards 1.2930-45 & possibly 1.2864
We saw gains as expected yesterday but these stalled at 1.3342. I can't see too much suggest this is going to follow-through and thus it will be better to wait for confirmation of gains. A break above 1.3230 would definitely help and should then extend the move to the 1.3270 pivot area but what will provide a more robust rally is a break of the 1.3297 high. If seen the odds will begin to favor follow-through above yesterday's 1.3342 high that would signal 1.3430 at least and potentially back into the 1.3498-29 area - possibly 1.3590+.
30th March: The pullback should continue into mid week but the favored support will either be at 1.3070-90 or 1.2930-45 and from there look for additional gains. Only a prior move back above 1.3450 would threaten an earlier resumption of gains.
I am cautious with my bearish view because I also feel that the next leg higher should begin at any time. However, this morning's dip is encouraging and a break below 1.3160-65 would generate a retest at 1.3092-1.3112. Take care as I would normally expect a correction there. While this remains below 1.3226-60 the next leg lower should have more chance of reaching the 1.2930-45 area at least and maybe even as far as the 1.2864 area. However, by the time we're getting down to these supports beware of a reversal.
1st April: While yesterday's high holds there still remains room for losses to 1.2990, 1.2930-45 and possibly what appears to be a favored target now at 1.2864. Only below 1.2800 would suggest deeper losses€¦
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