Bias: I look for a dip to the 1.4189-01 support before a rally to 1.4301-27 and then back lower again
It looks like we'll get an initial repeat of yesterday with downward pressure expected to take price back to the 1.4189-02 support area. I feel this will hold and from there look for price to break higher and this time break through yesterday's 1.4273 high to extend into the 1.4301-27 range. However, this should cap and cause a move back lower. Thus, any stronger bullish stance will require a break above 1.4330 and only if see would it extend gains through to 1.4359 at least and I suspect the 1.4406 resistance. This should then cause a correction. Above there note the 1.4445 high.
20th August: It looks more likely that we're seeing a stronger move higher. However, it will still be prudent to take care around the 1.4406 area in case we revert into a larger sideways consolidation. Above 1.4406-45 would take price directly higher towards the 1.4717 high & maybe 1.4844.
The 1.4189-1.4212 area held yesterday and I still feel the 1.4189-02 area will hold a second time today. The better selling opportunity should come in the 1.4301-27 area so watch for a bearish reversal pattern there. Only an earlier, direct break below 1.4170-89 would suggest a deeper decline and if seen look for this to extend back into the 1.4048-1.4084 range. Below there is also support around 1.4014.
20th August: There is now a strong chance that the downside will be very limited. The only risk is a cap around the 1.4380-06 area so watch this with some care. To confirm a reversal we'll need a break below 1.4170-89.
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