Bias: While 1.2771 caps the downside could see extension to 1.2602-33 at least & max 1.2569
The 1.2912 resistance wasn't even tested and losses came in a choppy manner as suggested to just below the 1.2700-20 area. I suspect there may be further to go in that case. Early trading is seeing a small pullback higher and I see resistance at 1.2771 & 1.2794 which I feel will cap. Thus, if looking for a stronger follow-through higher this barrier must be broken. If seen then there is early resistance at 1.2831 but I'd actually prefer a scenario looking for gains towards 1.2864-98. Only above 1.29 retests 1.2990.
24th February: Price extended slightly more than normal to end at 1.2990 and this now represents the barrier to the upside. Above here should mean that we get a push above the 1.3092 high which would confirm the daily bullish divergence and thus sustained gains.
Losses pushed down to the 1.2700-20 area and just below to 1.2689. I don't think this decline has finished and while 1.2771 caps (max 1.2794) I feel the downside has more chance of resuming. A move back below the 1.2730 pivot area would extend losses through 1.2689 and 1.2661 towards the 1.2602-33 are at least. From this point take care as I think we'll be seeing a base around this area - maximum the 1.2569 support. Thus any stronger bearish stance will need a break below 1.2565 and if seen would retest 1.2512.
25th February: The picture is very unclear though I feel the decline is more corrective and should be limited to 1.2569 at the most. Thus only below 1.25660 would retest 1.2512 and probably send price lower to 1.2443 minimum & at most 1.2328-66.
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