Bias: In the larger picture I am now more bearish but with momentum mixed I am allowing for a test of 1.5200
Price rallied more directly than expected on Wednesday and stalled 3 pips below the 1.5146 target… It could well be that we've seen the end of the larger uptrend for now but I want to be flexible in case and alternative structure could cause one final push higher. A break above 1.5035-50 would help while above 1.5080-95 would raise the chance of seeing extension above 1.5143 and to the 1.5190-10 area. That is the most I would expect to see price and retain a bearish stance. Above 1.5210 extends to 1.5283 at least.
24th November: The depth of the pullback at 1.4801 is really unusual for this stage of the wave structure but then price action has been particularly strange. However, we'll need a break above 1.5014 to generate follow-through to 1.5123-46 (outside chance of 1.52.) 1.4870 must support..
With price having reached the 1.5146 target (less 3 pips) the larger picture is now bearish. The only risk is a second push to 1.5190-10 before this tops out and the larger decline resumes. This remains a possibility while the 1.4935 low seen this morning remains intact that we could see 1.5190-10 first which I feel would be a good selling area. On the direct downside we have to be a little cautious. We have the 1.4935 low but I also see support at 1.4882-88 and it is break here that should see the downside begin to develop more progressively. Once seen it shouldn't take too long for price to extend losses through 1.4840 and 1.4801-23 to reach 1.4748 and possibly 1.4701... Below there is the 1.4626 low.
27th November: The minimum target at 1.5146 has been reached and thus I feel it is just a matter of time before losses develop and these should reach 1.4888 initially but after that it will imply quite firm losses back to the 1.4626 low.
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