Bias: This needs some care - but I feel the 1.2929 area should support for gains€¦
No additional high yesterday as price broke directly below support and pushed all the way lower to 1.2999 and this morning a little further to 1.2995. While 1.3043-65 caps there is still room for losses to extend back to 1.2995 and probably 1.2929 (max 1.2886.) In this area look for a bullish reversal pattern to confirm a reversal higher. Only an earlier break above 1.3065 would imply the decline is complete and we should see choppy gains back to 1.3088, 1.3124 and probably the 1.3181 high. Resistance is also seen at 1.3229-70.
28th April: The anticipated losses occurred more directly than I expected but I feel the decline is more corrective than looking for a new low. Thus while 1.2885-1.2929 supports I'll look for a move right back to the 1.33 high and then above 1.3391 to confirm gains.
The break lower triggered the pullback earlier than expected and this has stalled at 1.2995 this morning. We have to be a little careful as there is a bullish divergence in the hourly chart and I suspect we are likely to push back higher again soon. However, while the 1.3043-65 area caps there is chance we'll see one more leg lower back to 1.2995 and probably to 1.2929 (max 1.2886) which I feel will hold. Only below 1.2885 would imply a new low with support seen at 1.2860 and deeper around 1.2758-94.
27th April: I feel the 1.3357-90 area should provide quite a deep pullback at the very least and I can't even rule out one more low below 1.2885€¦ I shall watch how this anticipated decline develops to judge which will occur.
For a full description of how to use the analysis please see the Analysis page of my website. The prior day's set ups for potential trading levels highlighted in the report are now available on the Daily Forecast page of my web site.