Price:   1.4519

Bias:  While I feel the 1.4448-96 area will be tested today I feel we'll end the day higher…

Daily Bullish:

Price extended its losses over the day and remains under pressure. However, I don't think we're going to see the larger push lower today. I can see losses into the 1.4470-96 area at least and this is my favored stalling area but we should also allow for 1.4448. Thus, look for a bullish reversal pattern in this broad area. What I feel is more likely is a reversal back above 1.4550-83 that will extend the rally back to 1.4621-42 and after a small pullback to the 1.4672 peak at a minimum, probably a little higher but I doubt above 1.4718.

MT Bullish:

2nd October: I really feel the additional rally to 1.5185 is become less of a reality. I can't 100% rule it out so do keep this alternative in mind, but to generate the potential we'll need the 1.4718-25 and 1.4843 high before a correction and then follow-through to 1.5185.

Daily Bearish: 

As warned yesterday the 1.4672 high did seem to be more corrective and this has turned into losses but which seem remarkably reluctant to follow-through with any strength. Indeed, while I can see risk of minor losses the broad 1.4448-1.4496 area does look as if it will hold for a reversal higher. In particular the 1.4470-96 support. Thus, only below 1.4448 will open up a big hole. First support is at the 1.4400-10 pivot area and I'd suspect this will hold - below sees 1.4356. In the meantime, if I am correct with my suspicion that we'll see 1.4672-18 again then watch for a bearish reversal pattern.

MT Bearish:

2nd October:     Loss of 1.4527 has not generated much of a reaction as yet and this seems to indicate that we could see a recycling of the correction to 1.4672-18 before it can really take hold. Only directly below 1.4448 would open 1.4400, 1.4356, 1.4235 and possibly 1.4161.

For a full description of how to use the analysis please see the Analysis page of my website. The prior day's set ups for potential trading levels highlighted in the report are now available on the Daily Forecast page of my web site.