Bias: While I feel the 1.4448-96 area will be tested today I feel we'll end the day higher…
Price extended its losses over the day and remains under pressure. However, I don't think we're going to see the larger push lower today. I can see losses into the 1.4470-96 area at least and this is my favored stalling area but we should also allow for 1.4448. Thus, look for a bullish reversal pattern in this broad area. What I feel is more likely is a reversal back above 1.4550-83 that will extend the rally back to 1.4621-42 and after a small pullback to the 1.4672 peak at a minimum, probably a little higher but I doubt above 1.4718.
2nd October: I really feel the additional rally to 1.5185 is become less of a reality. I can't 100% rule it out so do keep this alternative in mind, but to generate the potential we'll need the 1.4718-25 and 1.4843 high before a correction and then follow-through to 1.5185.
As warned yesterday the 1.4672 high did seem to be more corrective and this has turned into losses but which seem remarkably reluctant to follow-through with any strength. Indeed, while I can see risk of minor losses the broad 1.4448-1.4496 area does look as if it will hold for a reversal higher. In particular the 1.4470-96 support. Thus, only below 1.4448 will open up a big hole. First support is at the 1.4400-10 pivot area and I'd suspect this will hold - below sees 1.4356. In the meantime, if I am correct with my suspicion that we'll see 1.4672-18 again then watch for a bearish reversal pattern.
2nd October: Loss of 1.4527 has not generated much of a reaction as yet and this seems to indicate that we could see a recycling of the correction to 1.4672-18 before it can really take hold. Only directly below 1.4448 would open 1.4400, 1.4356, 1.4235 and possibly 1.4161.
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