Bias: While 142.20-30 caps I feel the downside can be strong for 140.27-46 at least and maybe even the 138.24 low…
I am more bearish here and it's only the short term that causes me any doubt as ideally I'd like to see USDJPY at 92.25. Otherwise we are looking at a correction lower in USDJPY and continued losses in GBPUSD. Thus, only a break above the 142.30 area followed by 142.66 would retest the 143.21 corrective high. This needs to break to generate follow-through to 143.60 and 144.55...
19th February: We now need a break above the 143.21 corrective high to see a rally above 143.60 to the 144.46-64 area. This should cause a reversal lower.
The downside is more at risk and could well prove quite strong. I see resistance at 142.20-30 which ideally should cap for losses. A break below the 91.70 area in USDJPY could well trigger direct losses while GBPUSD remains bearish. Here a move below the 141.46-54 area could be the catalyst for stronger losses through 141.14 and 140.96 to reach the 140.27-46 area initially. This could cause a pullback but overall the 138.24 low is implied.
19th February: It looks as if we're seeing losses and these should reach the 138.24 low quite quickly I feel. It may cause a correction but overall I will expect a new low.
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