Bias: I feel yesterday's losses were enough and this should generate a final rally
Losses did occur as expected but were stronger than anticipated. Never-the-less I feel we probably saw a corrective low yesterday and thus we should be looking for gains today. A break above this morning's high at 155.84 should provide the trigger and extend gains through 156.20-30 and to 156.80 at least and probably the 157.47-61 area. This should cause a pullback but when complete look for the rally to extend to the 158.77 area at least and possibly 159.43-67 which I feel should provide a major top.
24th July: Yesterday's doubts over the upside proved totally wrong as we saw price rally strongly and I feel this has potential to reach 158.40-77 at least and more likely the 159.67 resistance. If seen I feel this would hold for a correction lower. Note next resistance at 160.27-49 and 161.81.
Losses came in right on cue and dropped even below 154.60 and to just 4 pips above the lower target at 154.08. However, I feel that has completed the correction and thus the risk is probably higher again. Only loss of 154.49 would threaten a retest of 154.12 and if this breaks then look for additional losses which should extend to 153.60and possibly 153.15. Note the next support at the 152.31 corrective low.
29th July: The 154.08 support has held and thus acts as the trigger for additional losses with 152.31 and 150.89 then implied.
For a full description of how to use the analysis please see the Analysis page of my website. The prior day's set ups for potential trading levels highlighted in the report are now available on the Daily Forecast page of my web site.