Bias: There seems a stronger risk of a sideways consolidation while overall I begin to feel more bearish
Failure to sustain the upside yesterday has forced a deeper pullback. I feel this is risking a sideways consolidation and possibly a more bearish structure. To rescue the bullish structure we're going to need one of two things. Either we get a direct break back above this morning's high at 139.55 and also 139.74 or we could suffer a pullback to 136.73-137.33 before a recovery. Thus watch the 139.55-74 area. If this break then look for a retest at 140.21-32 at least but take care again. This also needs to break to maintain the upwards momentum for a retest at the 141.49-77 highs. If seen there is a stronger chance of an extension to 142.08 & 143.95.
6th March: The peak at 141.49 is ok but we're going to need a firm push higher directly to confirm stronger gains above 141.77 and to 143.95 and 144.60 at least.
Yesterday's peak at 141.49 and the solid decline may be an early sign of weakness. It isn't yet enough to confirm the downside but we're going to have to watch progress carefully. While 139.55-74 caps there is still risk of a second round of losses. A break back below 138.75 and then 138.00 should imply losses to the 136.73 area at least. This appears to be important. Any breach would be raising the risk that we're going to see direct losses through 135.54 and on to 134.44 at least and potentially lower...
3rd March: With the rally to 141.77 we can now raise the reversal level to 135.25. Only below would suggest the uptrend has ended and a larger move lower is possible that should reach 131.62 en route the 125.00 area.
For a full description of how to use the analysis please see the Analysis page of my website. The prior day's set ups for potential trading levels highlighted in the report are now available on the Daily Forecast page of my web site.