Bias: Slightly mixed - waiting for breaks but the underlying move remains bearish
Yesterday's strength was a little stronger than expected but doesn't destroy the underlying bearish view. I do feel we saw the corrective high yesterday at 1.6507 and I see only a small chance we may just see a blip higher to 1.6524. Thus wait for that break before getting too bullish. Before that to generate any potential rally we'll need a break back above the 1.6400 area and if seen should mean that there is chance of extension to 1.6443-67. I feel this should probably be the highest we see today. Thus only above 1.6467 opens the risk of a return to the 1.6507-24 area and only a breach here opens up stronger gains towards the 1.6621-62 highs.
17th June: The decline is developing well and only a move back above 1.6467 and 1.6543 would put us back on a more bullish track.
While yesterday's high was higher than I thought it would be it doesn't alter the bearish view. However, we should be aware of the risk that we could see a small sideways consolidation. If we see the first move today as higher to 1.6467 I feel this would provide a good selling area for losses but within a range and probably limited to around 1.6237-51. If we don't see the rally to 1.6467 first and instead see loss of 1.6341 there is more chance we'll see losses extend through 1.6320 and down to the 1.6237-51 area. Take care there as it could cause a correction. Next support is at 1.6208 followed by 1.6114-40 and 1.6075-94.
15th June: We should have seen the high now and we should be seeing a larger decline back to the 1.5801 low and lower. However, the broad 1.5801 area should provide a pullback before the additional losses.
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