Bias: We need the 1.4320 area to cap to retain a directly bearish stance for 1.4115 & probably 1.4028-50
Yesterday was partly successful in that the 1.4300-20 area capped but the break of 1.4136 failed to see direct follow-through and triggered a second rally back to above 1.43. Ideally that should have completed the correction but the downside hasn't really resumed too well. However, for any stronger bullish stance wait for a break above 1.4320-25 and only then would I feel that a deeper pullback is possible to 1.4363-1.4420 minimum. Take care here in case it caps. Above extends for a second time towards the 1.4603 high.
18th February: I remain bearish and only see a small risk of a move above 1.4325 generating a push to 1.4363-1.4420 and at most the 1.4603-25 area again.
Yesterday saw a successful cap at 1.4300-20 but the breach of the prior 1.4136 low only saw another 13 pips before it rushed back to 1.43 again. Ideally I'd like to think this has completed a complex correction & thus the decline should resume. The slow start concerns and thus it may be better to wait for loss of the 1.4190 low to look for additional losses down below 1.4115-23, then onto the 1.4070 area. Expect a small pullback but then a test of the 1.4050 low & possibly just below stalling between 1.4006-28 (max 1.3962.)
17th February: I feel the resumption of losses is now underway and it should now be just a matter of time before the 1.4050 corrective low breaks and generates losses to around 1.3971 at least and eventually below the 1.3501 low.
For a full description of how to use the analysis please see the Analysis page of my website.