Bias: I feel that while 1.4325-55 caps we are more likely to see a test of 1.4193 at least
Friday's gains were strong but failed short of the 1.4995-05 resistance. We have seen new lows and while the larger picture does still look bearish I feel the 1.4193 support should stall this decline. I would suggest observing this support at first and look for buy-set up signals. From here a move back above 1.4325-55 should provide a deeper pullback. Until we know where the final low develops it is difficult to identify resistance levels. However, broadly I feel the 1.4440 area is moderately firm - the 1.4540-60 area more likely to cap.
20th January: Friday's gains stalled just short of the 1.50 resistance and new lows suggest that the larger downtrend is underway. Only a break back above 1.4540-60 and 1.4632-67 would bring potential for an unexpected larger upward correction.
Losses from the 1.4979 high have already moved to new lows. I feel that while 1.4325-55 caps the risk is still lower and should move closer to the 1.4193 short term target. Take care around here. Only breach would extend losses to 1.4075 at least and probably the 1.4001 support. A modest pullback is then expected. Only a direct breach of 1.4000 would maintain aggressive losses that could extend below 1.3900...
20th January: A cap was seen at 1.4979 and from there we have seen the downside resume and does look as if this will continue. However, it may not be totally direct with the 1.4193 (max) 1.41) supports likely to force a correction before more aggressive losses.
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The recovery pushed above 1.4922 and reached 1.4979. Given that we have seen new lows this morning there does seem like a strong risk that we are seeing a more directly bearish pattern rather than a triangle. Thus I feel Friday's high was Wave (ii) of Wave -c- and what we are seeing now is Wave (a) of Wave (iii). A 76.4% projection in minor Wave v of this decline rests at 1.4193 and thus I feel we should see a 38.2%-50% pullback in Wave (b) that should remain below 1.4500-86.
Once the Wave (iii) decline resumes in Wave (c) I can see a 138.2% projection at 1.3730...