Bias: Mixed – waiting for breaks
In fact we saw a stronger break above 1.4057-87 which led to stronger gains that reached 1.4241. I am not really in favor of the upside but it has pushed through firmly and not allowed momentum to show any divergence. A break above 1.4241 would allow the rally to continue. There is minor resistance at 1.4270 and I suspect this would break for extension to 1.4342 at least. Take care there. Again, breach would maintain the upside for 1.4437-75 at least. Also note the 1.4517 and 1.4564-89.
28th January: Gains have been seen and if the 1.4241 high is broken then the risk will appear to have changed for gains back to 1.4342, 1.4475 and 1.4565-89 at least.
The 1.4241-70 area looks critical. As long as this caps and we see a break below 1.4125 it should provide room for additional losses. If seen look for a move down to the 1.4024 corrective low while breach would extend losses to 1.3980 and more likely 1.3871-97. Below that note support at 1.3814 and 1.3784.
28th January: We are close to break here and we're going to need the 1.4241 (max 1.4270) resistance to cap. As long as this happens and we get a break back below 1.4125 we should then see a retest of the 1.4024 low. Next support is seen at 1.3814 and 1.3712.
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
Gains were stronger than expected and I have therefore moved the Wave (iii) label to the 1.3501 low. A 50% retracement in Wave (iv) lies at 1.4240... Thus while it holds there is chance this could mark the end of Wave (iv). From here we're going to need a 5 wave move down to around 1.35 again in Wave (a). This would then force a correction in Wave (b) and followed by Wave (c) that I feel would then target the 1.2900 area...
Thus break above 1.4241 is going to concern. We should give allowance for 1.4270... However, breach will send price higher through to 1.4342 at least. Then note the next resistance at 1.4442-50.