Bias: I look for 1.4380-00 to cap again for losses through 1.4169 & 1.4109 en route 1.4013-49
Friday wasn't quite the day I had expected although it started well with the losses. However, the recovery from 1.4109 was deep enough to almost retest the 1.4383 corrective peak again. If there is any chance that we'll see a further attempt higher we'll need a break back above 1.4305 which would fuel gains above 1.4330-63 and to the 1.4383-87 resistance. Only breach will maintain the upside momentum for 1.4450-76 at least and possibly 1.4512-42.
26th February: Yesterday's losses do seem to point to additional losses … Thus only back above 1.4390 and 1.4455-74 would put the shoe back on the bullish foot and see a return to 1.4660 and potentially 1.4885.
I have taken the surprise recovery from the 1.4109 low as a recycling of the correction and thus I'll retain a bearish outlook. To generate the expected losses I feel that we require breach of 1.4169-98 to give way. If seen then expect a stronger follow-through lower this time towards 1.4013-49 at least. I feel this may well hold for a deeper correction. Next support is seen at 1.3937-54.
26th February: The collapse to 1.4172 was constructive and while 1.4352-89 caps can see further attempts lower to 1.4050-72 at least and at most 1.4020. If this breaks then we'll see a move to 1.3925-67 before the next bigger correction.
For a full description of how to use the analysis please see the Analysis page of my website. The prior day's set ups for potential trading levels highlighted in the report are now available on the Daily Forecast page of my web site.