Bias: I feel the correction may be complete - a break below the 1.4955 low would heighten risk of losses…
We did see the push higher as expected yesterday but this stalled 10 pips below the 1.5028 resistance. Indeed, I feel we saw a full corrective structure. Therefore, only a break above the 1.5028-70 area will generate a stronger recovery and if seen would see a minimum move to around the 1.5111 corrective high. Then note potential stalling areas at the 1.5040-60 congestion and then 1.5205-15...
25th March: Given the decline seen yesterday I doubt we'll see anywhere above the 1.5065 resistance and we may not even see this high… Thus, the downtrend is only reversed above 1.5065 and then the 1.5111 swing high.
I feel the rally from 1.4802 came in a corrective structure and therefore the downside risk remains. A move below the 1.4955 low seen so far would provide price with a prod lower initially towards the 1.4891-97 area and later through 1.4874 & 1.4853 and back to the 1.4802-10 area and maximum the 1.4782 low. In this broad 1.4782-10 area I'd expect a pullback before we can see it lower again.
25th March: Losses have developed and these should see the 1.4782 low quite soon but I feel it will break to extend the down trend to 1.4665 & 1.4602-29 at least.
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