Bias: I suspect a pullback higher at the very least - while this remains subdued watch key support
Well, the minor resistance I quoted at 1.6663 turned out to be major resistance€¦ The drop has been strong and indeed generated a bearish Key Day Reversal. This commonly causes a few bars of consolidation - or alternatively direct resumption of losses€¦ Thus to return us to a more bullish scenario we really need a day of strong gains. Early resistance is at 1.6384-1.6414 and if this caps we can forget any strength. A break above here would push on to the next key resistance area at 1.6451 at least and potentially 1.6500-21. I feel it will cap if seen. Only breach would threaten a retest at the 1.6661 high.
4th June: Following the sharp reversal yesterday we are going to need a swift break back above 1.6414 and 1.6521 to retest 1.6661 which may just then resurrect the chance of reaching 1.6849-63 and maybe 1.6954.
The sharpness of the losses and the Key Day Reversal does tend to argue for a major high having been seen€¦ Still, we have to use care as such an event can lead to a bar or two of consolidation. If there is any chance of new lows today then we should see the 1.6384-1.6414 resistance cap. A move lower from there (or directly) that pushes below 1.6240 would set up losses to 1.6161 at least and I suspect 1.6080-1.6122. While I feel this may well hold also take note of support around 1.6043 also. Only breach would risk losses to the 1.5853 swing low over time.
4th June: We have broken the reversal level already and unless we see a solid recovery today I suspect we have seen the major high at 1.6661 and thus we should be planning for a correction lower€¦ Key supports for now are at 1.6080-1.6122 and below there at 1.5852.
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