Price:   1.5116

Bias:    I feel a pullback higher is due either to 1.5199 or at most 1.5227-54…

Daily Outlook:

Losses fell a little short of target but the pullback from the 1.5067 low has been deep enough to confirm this part of the decline is complete. Thus, while the 1.5067-85 area supports I feel there is still upside risk back to the 1.5145 pivot area and then towards 1.5199 at least. From this point take care as a reversal lower could occur at any time. However, the maximum upside should be limited to 1.5227-54... Only above 1.5282 triggers a stronger recovery back to 1.5386...

We have seen two separate bearish structures and the risk is for a third. Thus we should be concentrating on where the correction will stall and I feel two areas have the greatest potential for a peak - at 1.5199 and 1.5227-54. Look for a bearish set up around these levels. Only a direct break below yesterday's 1.5067 low would imply more direct losses through 1.5039 to 1.4997 at least. I think this could reach as far as 1.4957 or even 1.4890...

Medium Term Outlook:

6th May:      As mentioned above there is still downside risk while the 1.5227-54 area caps. General targets to consider are around 1.4957 and 1.4890 but I shall need to see how this progresses to fine tune the final target. However, I don't expect a break below 1.4782...

Only back above the 1.5282 corrective high would suggest we'll see more direct gains back towards the 1.5386 high and then 1.5523 again...

For a full description of how to use the analysis please see the Analysis page of my website. The prior day's set ups for potential trading levels highlighted in the report are available on the Daily Forecast page of my web site in the Trader Package review. (+155 pips)

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