Bias: Watch for the risk of further sharp losses
While price fell 10 pips short of the 1.1083 resistance I feel that the decline from there probably implies the end of the correction. The pullback has been quite shallow which is quite normal for this pair. Thus only a break above the 1.0934 high would cause follow-through but there is close resistance at 1.0961 and then 1.0987-97 which I feel would cap for a reversal lower. Only above 1.1000 would threaten a retest at 1.1073-83 again.
11th August: We saw a rally to the 1.0933 swing high and although I expect a pullback lower today I feel that there is probably potential for the upside to reach 1.1083 and possibly 1.1177.
The reversal from 1.1073 was very sharp and this does highlight the possibility that we'll see another push lower today. For the moment we remain in 1.0860-1.0930 consolidation and if this breaks lower directly then I would not be surprised to see another sharp move lower. There is minor support along the way at the 1.0849 low and then 1.0780 but I feel there is every chance we'll see 1.00676-95 at least - possibly back to the 1.0630 low.
13th August: Cautiously I feel the correction has ended and thus we'll be seeing continued losses back to the 1.0630 low and probably beyond.
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