Bias: I feel we may still be within a 1.2647-1.2765 range€¦
Although price broke back above 1.2739 it failed at the 1.2764 resistance and has returned into the range. I suspect we shall see this bounce from the 1.2647area and move back above 1.2680 and towards the 1.2740-50 area but then fail. Thus only an earlier break back above 1.2725 would risk a second test at 1.2765 and if this breaks then we can expect a stronger move higher that should reach 1.2842 at least. I suspect this will cap for a correction at least. Only breach of 1.2855 would imply a boost back towards 1.2956.
16th March: Overall I feel the downside has the stronger argument but I can see some risk that a break back above 1.2842 could see a deeper pullback to 1.2895-17 and there is even a structure that would imply a retest at the 1.2956 high...
We appear to be marking out a triangle and this should see early losses back below 1.2672 but then stall at 1.2647. I suspect then we should find a further selling opportunity at 1.2740-50. Thus only direct breach of 1.2640 would extend losses below the 1.2624 low and push all the way to the 1.2543-62 area - probably the high of the range. Take care there as this could cause the correction to recycle higher. Breach maintains the bearish momentum for losses to 1.2487 and probably the 1.2393-20 area.
16th March: The breach of 1.2700-30 didn't quite produce as strong a follow-through as expected. This now needs to break quickly to confirm a minimum target at 1.2487 and a larger target at 1.2390...
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