Bias: I feel we should see a pullback from the 1.0380-88 area but probably no further than 1.0450-80…
The pullback higher didn't last as long as I expected, stalling at 1.0528. I feel the decline at the end of Friday is almost complete and feel the 1.0380-88 area should support and trigger a recovery back to 1.0449-60 at least and maximum 1.0480. Only back above here would threaten a second test of 1.0528 and possibly 1.0551 before lower again...
19th February: I feel the most we shall see on the upside is 1.0555-88. If this breaks then the 1.0645-51 area should cap.
The bearish underlying trend remains but I don't think this will develop directly. The 1.0380-88 area should stall this particular decline and generate a correction to the 1.0449-60 area (max 1.0480) from where I feel we should see the next move lower. A break below 1.0380 would extend losses through to 1.0340 at least - take care there - but at some point I am expecting the decline to extend back to the 1.0205-35 area.
19th February: I feel we are finally seeing the expected pullback but this may only allow 1.0555-88 and overall this should trigger follow-through lower to below 1.0396 and 1.0290-20 towards the 1.0205-23 lows.
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