Bias: My patience is beginning to fail but still wait for breaks to confirm the move
Still no break higher and a return to close to the 1.2200 low but which was followed bya rally back to retest the 1.2351-54 area€¦ It really is hard to fit this into a bearish structure and thus we should be aware of the risk of a move higher. However, I'd still recommend caution. A move above the 1.2354 high should extend the rally through 1.2377 and to 1.2407 at least. Take care as this could cap. Thus any breach of 1.2410 would maintain the upward momentum for 1.2444 and 1.2504 and I feel higher to 1.2552 and 1.2613-30.
20th March: I feel we are more likely to see once more push lower to the 1.2124 corrective low. From there I feel the way will be open for stronger gains back above 1.2610-30 and 1.2730 to return to the 1.3063 high.
Still no move below the 1.2189-00 area and a push back to the 1.2354 level. This is really testing my patience but may well mean we shall see a stronger recovery. Thus we shall need the 1.2354 peak to remain intact and for a break below 1.2270 to reach 1.2238-80. Take care here as this could hold in a sideways pattern. Thus only breach of 1.2238 would retest 1.2189 and probably the 1.2124-35 support.
20th March: Watch the 1.2124 area for support. Only a clean breach here would open up a much larger decline, initially to 1.2023 but late more likely to the 1.1755 low.
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