Bias: While 1.2526-50 caps I still feel the bearish side is the stronger
In the end the 1.2223 level held and provoked a sharp pullback which came earlier than expected. I am in two minds whether this correction has finished or whether there is a bit more to go. If we do see a push above the 1.2470 high seen already then the 1.2526-50 area is the most I expect to see. Thus any stronger bullish stance will require a break above 1.2555 which would cause a test of 1.2597 and if this area breaks then we may well see a sharp follow-through above 1.2650 to the 1.2713 high...
7th April: I was a little aggressive with the bearish view and while we have seen a deeper than expected correction I can't really get bullish until the 1.2550 & 1.26 level break. If seen then look for a swift return to the 1.2713 high and probably further.
Lack of follow-through yesterday has seen a deeper correction but I still prefer a bearish stance. I'm not sure whether we saw the corrective high at 1.2470 or whether we can still see a slightly higher correction to the 1.2526-50 area. If it reaches this resistance I suspect it will provide a good selling opportunity. Only an earlier break below 1.2373 would begin to weaken the price structure and risk follow-through below 1.2290 to 1.2223-48 at least. Take care there. Only breach will retest the 1.2189 low€¦
7th April: I am still cautiously in favor of the 1.2526-50 resistance area holding and generating a second test lower to the 1.2189-23 area. This may hold on first test but the implication will be a much larger decline through 1.2124 and below€¦
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