Bias: Wait for breaks of either 1.0300 or 1.0237 which I feel will generate as much as 80 pips…
We have an interesting situation here, the potential for a bullish ascending triangle as long as the 1.0245-00 range continues a bit more. If this does happen first and we get a break above 1.0300 then the implication is not for 1.0325 (though do take care there) but for 1.0388. Thus, we'll need to be patient to ensure that we get the pullback lower first and then a push above 1.03. If it rallies directly then we'll have to be more careful at 1.0325 which is still the favored resistance in terms of the 1.0337 swing high.
9th December: We have almost reached target and therefore only above 1.0325-40 and 1.0388 would imply that we are seeing a more direct rally in this larger daily correction. Temporary barriers then lie at 1.0452 and 1.0520-30.
The gradual wearing away at the topside has caused a particularly frustrating situation but I do feel that we shall get a break by the end of the day. There can be two scenarios to look at for the downside. The first is a direct break above 1.0300 which should then mean we take care at 1.0325 as I feel this will be the peak for a stronger pullback. Alternatively any direct loss of 1.0237-45 should trigger a more robust follow-through to 1.0179 minimum and could later reach lower to 1.0140-50 and possibly 1.0105.
10th December: Maybe we've seen the high although it didn't quite reach the 1.0325 target. A break below 1.0212-17 would confirm but could still be choppy. Supports are then seen at 1.0145-64, 1.0104, 1.0039-70 and 1.000.
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