Bias: I can't rule out a test of the 1.1690-22 area but while it caps there is more downside risk
The break of 1.1531 provided losses that broke through 1.1453-60 but then stalled at 1.1431. The recovery from there has been quite firm and I can't rule out this seeing one final move to the 1.1690-22 area. However, if there is to be any further strength then this area must break. If seen then look for follow-through back towards 1.1749 and the peaks around 1.1790-10 en route the 1.1847 & 1.1883 peaks.
9th March: Friday's losses are more encouraging for the downside and this should limit any upward corrections. Only back above 1.1810 would cause a further test at 1.1883 and even then we'll need to watch for where the overhead trend resistance lies.
I was rather surprised with the reversal from 1.1431 which wasn't anticipated€¦ The recovery makes it look like a complex correction and thus while the 1.1690-22 area caps I still feel the downside can develop. There is immediate support at 1.1555-69 and breach of this support would imply the correction is complete and would therefore trigger another leg lower that should extend through 1.1431-60 and down to the 1.1357 support. Take care here as I feel this will support. Also note the 1.1311 low.
9th March: It looks like we are finally on our way lower and while 1.1646-65 caps look for follow-through below 1.1483 and onto 1.1357 and later to 1.1262 minimum, possibly as deep as 1.1163.
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