Bias: 1.0775-90 is the break level although there is also support at 1.0733-58 but remain aware of both sides today
My bullishness is declining but we cannot forget the threat still as no break lower has been seen yet. There is still risk that while 1.0775-90 supports that we could see a move back to around 1.0835-43. It is above here that the upside begins to become a stronger threat and a breach of teh 1.0882 high would extend gains to the 1.0933-54 area at least and there is then a stronger risk of follow-through to 1.1000-30 and 1.1067.
10th August: I am less convinced here but if there is any chance of stronger gains then I feel a move above the 1.1021 high must be seen to open the risk for eventual gains to 1.1155.
Breach of 1.0835 has undermined the strongly bullish scenario but we should be patient to allow confirmation of a reversal to develop. The key support is at 1.0790 - and also possibly 1.0775. Even then there is risk of a pullback. If we see an early correction back to the 1.0835-43 area that caps then any test of 1.0790 would more likely succeed and provoke stronger losses through 1.0733-58 and 1.0681 to reach the 1.0637 area. This should prompt a correction but in time the 1.0567 low will come under pressure.
12th August: The bearish cycles and yesterday's failure to break higher is causing me to look more strongly for a break below 1.0758-90 to retest the 1.0567 low and over time I would not be surprised to see this reach the 1.0370 low once again - maybe even 1.0040.
For a full description of how to use the analysis please see the Analysis page of my website. The prior day's set ups for potential trading levels highlighted in the report are now available on the Daily Forecast page of my web site.