Bias: Below 1.1140 extends losses to 1.1054 while above 1.1253-74 is require to cause direct gains
The continued tight range trading has caused a triangle and thus we should be able to trade on breaks. The bullish break will come on a move above 1.1214 initially and should then allow gains to develop through to the 1.1253-78 peaks. I suspect that if seen it should quickly turn into a break and if so then watch for extension through 1.333 and to the 1.1422-66 area at least. However, I favor the higher level to provide the peak. Also note a higher target at 1.1527-55.
13th January: I remain with my eye on the 1.1422, 1.1466 and 1.1555 projections as the potential end to this rally from 1.0370. Only below 1.1050 would threaten a deeper pullback first.
The continued failure for the upside to must warn us of the possibility of a slightly deeper pullback. However, given I still feel the upside is the stronger underlying risk it would be best to wait for confirmation. I note support within a triangle scenario at 1.1139 and further at 1.1127. Thus, a break of this support area should generate a deeper push lower that would move below the 1.1096 corrective low but then I feel a base at 1.1057 is likely. Allow for a small overshoot. However, only below 1.1011-23 would imply stronger losses...
13th January: We can now raise the reversal level to 1.1000. More likely we shall get a selling level either at 1.1466 or closer to 1.1555. Any break of 1.10 would extend losses to 1.0934 and 1.0836-61.
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
I do find this wave structure very complicated and also lacking in normal Fibonacci relationships. I have therefore tentatively labeled the 1.1278 high as a Wave iii and this implies a 50% retracement in Wave iv at 1.0909 and thus I feel that yesterday's 1.0867 low probably satisfied this. If correct we should therefore see a Wave a developing back to the 1.1278 area. It alos implies a 61.8% projection in Wave v at 1.1422, a 66.7% projection at 1.1466 and a 76.4% projection at 1.1555.
Thus we should observe how this develops. First we shall need a break back above the 1.1120 pivot resistance to take price back to the 76.4% retracement at 1.1200-20 at least. Above here would confirm a retest of 1.1278.
The picture remains balanced and I can only note that I feel we should finally see a move to the 66.7% projection in Wave v at 1.1466 and maximum the 76.4% projection at 1.1555. In the mean time a 50% retracement of the 1.0861-1.1253 rally lies at 1.1057. While this area supports we can still see a direct rally to target. Breach would open the possibility of a flat correction back to 1.0840-61..