Bias: The reaction from the 1.1519 high has been poor but I still prefer a bearish stance
As expected we saw a cap within the 1.1513-47 area but the reaction lower has not been very convincing so far. Maybe we need to allow for one more push higher though I'm not particularly keen on this. Note resistance between 1.1519-47. If this is going to turn into a deeper move higher then a move above 1.1550 should move on to retest the 1.1622 high. This may well hold temporarily but the implication will be for the larger correction to reach 1.1674-96 at least. The next resistance is not seen until 1.1780-00.
15th April: I feel the 1.1622 high satisfied the 1.1631 target and thus the downtrend has most likely resumed. Thus only a break back above 1.1547 would open a second test of 1.1622-31 and at most 1.1674-96.
I have patiently waited for the correction to complete and I feel it has done enough and maybe it's just impatience, but I have not been impressed with the downside so far. However, I'll stick to my guns and retain a bearish outlook but we really need a break below the 1.1445 corrective low to confirm this view. If seen then look for follow-through below 1.1398 and 1.1354 and to the 1.1320-25 area. I think this will break but be aware that a correction is possible before price can retest the 1.1240 low and probably 1.1157-68.
15th April: I feel the 1.1622 high was the end of the correction and thus we should be looking for a stronger push lower. While 1.1500-50 caps we should see a quick retest of the 1.1157-68 lows and maybe 1.1128. Below here provokes stronger losses.
For a full description of how to use the analysis please see the Analysis page of my website. The prior day's set ups for potential trading levels highlighted in the report are now available on the Daily Forecast page of my web site.