Bias: I feel we are now close to a stronger break higher - 1.1649 should now support
Price remained in a very frustrating tight range over Friday and yesterday and this has made the wave structure very difficult to identify. However, this morning's break back to 1.1719 does have the look of a stronger attempt at the upside. I feel we may just see a pullback from the 1.1720-40 resistacne but while any pullback remains above 1.1649 (allow for 1.1625) I feel we shall soon see a break above 1.1720 & 1.1780 to push price all the way to 1.1860 minimum and more likely 1.1914...
13th February: The move to 1.1714 is encouraging but the drop to 1.1587 has been a bit deep. As long as the 1.1574 support holds it is still possible that we'll see direct gains above 1.1714 & 1.1780 to 1.1864 at least - and after a pullback to the 1.2116 target...
It certainly looks as if the upside is just about to launch itself. However, I'm not so sure this is going to be direct and feel that while 1.1720-40 caps there is risk of a correction back to the 1.1649-69 area. However, I'd be reluctant to expect any more. Therefore only a break below the 1.1640 area would threaten yet another whip-saw and a move then below 1.1578 to 1.1500-05 at least. Take care as this could cause a reaction but I feel then the chances would favor a extension to 1.1400 at least.
13th February: The 1.1500-04 area still remains the key to losses and having seen the pullback higher yesterday then loss would appear to to confirm a move as deep as the 1.1311-33 area again - maybe even 1.1267-80.
For a full description of how to use the analysis please see the Analysis page of my website.