Bias: While 1.1108 caps I will look for losses to 1.1018-45 else look for 1.1159-76 before lower
Price declined close to expectations with losses down to 1.1085 which was followed by a bounce, but then a push down to 1.1069. There are two possible alternatives here€¦ There is resistance at 1.1108 which has held this morning already. While this caps then the implication is a drop to 1.1039-45 (max 1.1018) where I feel we should be looking for a reversal higher that should reach 1.1222. Any earlier break above 1.1108 would imply a return to 1.1159-76 which should cap for losses to the 1.1018-45 area.
18th May: The break above 1.1105-20 has almost reached 1.1290 and I feel this will be the maximum we see. Thus only a break above 1.1300 would imply a completely different scenario and should see gains extend to 1.1421 at least and above there to 1.1449-86...
While losses broke below 1.1085 it has not been particularly weak. If this morning's 1.1108 corrective high holds then we should see a move below 1.1069 that will stall around 1.1039-45 (max 1.1018.) Only a break below 1.1010 would imply a retest at 1.0977. However, if we first get a rally above 1.1108 then it would imply a move back into the 1.1159-76 area which should provide a selling opportunity for losses to the 1.1018-45 area...
18th May: It seems the 1.0977 low was the end of this part of the decline but the 1.1290 resistance should be the most we see. I actually feel there is risk of a flattish correction that will last 2-3 days but beyond that I will be looking for losses to the 1.0630-60 target
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