Bias: This is getting tougher as price has come quite close to target - but probably we'll see consolidation today
Price did rally yesterday but failed below the 1.1154 target. However, I don't think we've seen the end of the rally yet. Ideally I'd like to see the 1.1081 low reached this morning hold and generate a rally back towards the 1.1136 high and later to the 1.1161-77 resistance zone. Cautiously I feel this may well hold. Look for a bearish trade set up here. Only a break above 1.1180 would extend gains to the 1.1244-50 Fibo retracement and pivot resistance before reversing lower.
The ideal high I am looking for is around 1.1161-77 (but keep 1.1244-50 in mind). Only above 1.1250 causes stronger gains. On the other side a breach of the 1.1070 would risk a move down to 1.1035-40 and probably the 1.0997 low. Below there is support at 1.0930 but probably the decline will extend further.
Medium Term Outlook:
21st June: The decline is occurring much faster than I had expected and is beginning to suggest that the 1.1730 high was the end of the rally. If this is the case then we'll see the 1.1154-89 area cap for a push below 1.0930 and then I'll have to generate a new target.
Only back above the 1.1250 pivot resistance followed by 1.1350 would cause a lot more problems and suggest a larger correction higher...
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