Price:   1.1092

Bias:    This is getting tougher as price has come quite close to target - but probably we'll see consolidation today

Daily Outlook:

Price did rally yesterday but failed below the 1.1154 target. However, I don't think we've seen the end of the rally yet. Ideally I'd like to see the 1.1081 low reached this morning hold and generate a rally back towards the 1.1136 high and later to the 1.1161-77 resistance zone. Cautiously I feel this may well hold. Look for a bearish trade set up here. Only a break above 1.1180 would extend gains to the 1.1244-50 Fibo retracement and pivot resistance before reversing lower.

The ideal high I am looking for is around 1.1161-77 (but keep 1.1244-50 in mind). Only above 1.1250 causes stronger gains. On the other side a breach of the 1.1070 would risk a move down to 1.1035-40 and probably the 1.0997 low. Below there is support at 1.0930 but probably the decline will extend further.

Medium Term Outlook:

21st June:      The decline is occurring much faster than I had expected and is beginning to suggest that the 1.1730 high was the end of the rally. If this is the case then we'll see the 1.1154-89 area cap for a push below 1.0930 and then I'll have to generate a new target.

Only back above the 1.1250 pivot resistance followed by 1.1350 would cause a lot more problems and suggest a larger correction higher...

For a full description of how to use the analysis please see the Analysis page of my website. The prior day's set ups for potential trading levels highlighted in the report are available on the Daily Forecast page of my web site in the Trader Package review. (+65 pips)

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