DAILY FORECAST FOR USDCHF 25th November 2009

Bias:  I feel we may be seeing a flat sideways channel move between 1.0071-1.0159

Daily Bullish:

Yesterday's strength was a little stronger than expected but then total reversal lower. Even if we are going to see a final move lower then it's not impossible to see a second test of the 1.0151-59 area. However, also take care around the 1.0129 corrective high since this could hold also. Thus, any stronger bullish stance is going to require a break above the 1.0129-59 area. Only if seen would I feel there is room for acceleration - and this could be pretty sharp if seen today in a relatively illiquid market - that would push above the 1.0222 high and to 1.0254 minimum. Above there is the 1.0337 high.

MT Bullish:

25th November:   The pullback has been the deepest and from here (or 0.9932-63) we should see a larger move higher develop. Above 1.0151-59 would trigger gains through to 1.0222, 1.0254, 1.0337 and probably 1.0381 at a minimum. I also see a possible target at 1.0452-65.

Daily Bearish: 

Can the downside still happen? Well, I cannot rule it out and it almost looks as if the drop back to the lows from 1.0151 is tending to favor this final drop… The only thing is that we may have to go through some consolidation that could last over two days. The maximum I see is either at 1.0129 or 1.0159. Thus from there or a direct move below 1.0071 would extend losses below 1.0032 (probably very little reaction there) and onto 1.0002 minimum and possibly 0.9968. We should see a pullback from one of these two points but once complete the 0.9917-32 target should be attacked. However, I still feel this will hold.

MT Bearish:

 25th November:  Price just cannot muster up enough strength to finally put the Dollar down trend to bed… While it remains below 1.0159 I still feel there is a chance of seeing this 0.9917-32 target I have identified for the past few weeks.

For access to my daily support & resistance levels please see the Daily Forecast page of my web site For a full description of how to use the analysis please see the Analysis page of my website. The prior day's set ups for potential trading levels highlighted in the report are available on the Daily Forecast page of my web site along with a new report showing the prior day’s support & resistance levels.