Bias: Slightly mixed but do still see a risk that price could try & retest the 1.1776-00 resistance…
The gains I suspected yesterday didn't occur and instead price drifted lower. It does leave the situation rather mixed but overall I can't really see a strongly bullish structure now although I can't rule out - and maybe favor - a third attempt at the prior support line. A break above 1.1675-80 would assist and as long as this generated a push above 1.1718 I can see the risk then being for a follow-through to the 1.1754-76 area. I'd like this to cap but do keep an eye out on the trend line. Only above 1.1800 provokes 1.1883 & 1.1972.
26th February: Strength seen from the 1.1460 low but we have stalled at 1.1760-83 and this is the next barrier to overcome - if seen then look for a retest of 1.1883 and later to 1.1949 and potentially 1.2057 en route 1.2116 at least.
There is no real change to the underlying view that the Key Reversal Day should eventually cause losses. It is more now whether this will happen directly or whether we see a move to the 1.1554-76 area. If seen then look for a bearish reversal pattern to confirm the trade. A more direct decline will require a break below 1.1561-95 which would set up a test of the 1.1532 low and breach provides the final confirmation of stronger losses to 1.1487at least and I suspect further for 1.1431 (pullback possible) and later to the 1.1280-1.1311 area.
25th February: A bearish key day reversal with a daily bearish divergence does threaten a larger move lower. Below 1.1461 will open the risk of losses to retest the firm 1.1289-1.1311 support which should hold for a pullback.
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