Bias: While 1.1280-00 supports the odds still seem to be in favor of additional gains
I was too early to look for a direct move higher and losses have almost reached the key pivot support at 1.1250-80. Indeed, while a bullish MT scenario remains valid this should ideally hold. To suggest we are already on the way higher we'll need a break above 1.1453 at least. Beyond we should also note the 1.1485-19 resistance area which would need to hold in a bearish structure. Thus take care until this resistance is broken and if seen then look for follow-through back thru 1.1565 & 1.1622 en route the 1.1714 high...
27th January: The last support for the uptrend to hold is around 1.1250-80… While it remains intact there is room for a return to 1.1714 and 1.2116.
Breach of the 1.1500-20 pivot support took price all the way down to the 1.1380 swing low and has approached the key MT support at the 1.1280 pivot area. We should allow for a little margin around here. However, if we see this broken and preferably 1.1250 the uptrend will be broken. If seen then look for losses to extend through 1.1226 & 1.1199 en route 1.1135-55 and no lower than the 1.1100-20 lows which should cause a pullback on first test.
27th January: We have seen losses close to the 1.1280 pivot support and breach of this area (allow for 1.1250) would imply stronger losses. Initially these should reach the 1.1100-20 area which holds the potential to cause a pullback. Breach would extend down to 1.0860.
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
Yesterday's losses can be view in two possible scenarios:
We saw the end of a 3-wave move to 1.1714 and thus we are about to see losses. A break of the 1.1250-80 pivot support area would confirm this. If seen then there could be a brief correction from the 1.1100-20 lows but the structure would imply a test of the prior alternative Wave -b- at 1.0861... Further out we should expect a 76.4% retracement at least which lies at 1.0687.
If the 1.1714 high was actually Wave -a- of Wave -iii- then a 50% retracement in Wave -b- lies at 1.1288 - right where a pivot support lies. Thus, while this area supports the bullish structure will remain intact and cause a move back to the 1.1714 high and further to the 138.2% projection in Wave -iii- at 1.2116.