Bias: Mixed - but feel that while 1.1479 caps there may still be room for losses to 1.1349 before higher
We didn't see new highs but direct losses which moved down to the low end of the 1.1420-50 support zone. I suspect the risk of seeing a push lower to around the 1.1349 low. However, I feel we should be looking for a bullish reversal pattern from there. From this low I feel we should see gains back close to the 1.1479 resistance. But that should cap. Any stronger bullish stance will require a direct recovery to 1.1479 and breach which would then imply follow-through to the 1.1545 pivot at least and potentially the 1.1603 high again.
29th April: Yesterday's failure places the emphasis on the downside. However, I feel the 1.1349 area may well be hard to break and cause a pullback, possibly in a consolidation. Only an earlier break back above 1.1603 would risk a return to 1.1720-40 & 1.1775.
The break below 1.1543 was enough to trigger a solid follow-through which has reached 1.1418 thus far. I feel there may be a risk of a pullback to 1.1479 but look for this to cap - so look for bearish reversal patterns) and for a return back to 1.1418, a small bounce and then follow-through to 1.1335-60 and at most 1.1303. I expect a solid bounce from there. Thus only direct break of 1.1303 maintains the decline for 1.1240 followed by the 1.1157-68 lows.
27th April: If I am right in seeing yesterday's rally as corrective then we'll head back lower again soon. We'll have to be careful around the 1.1410-50 area which could stall if this turns into a sideways move - else expect direct losses to 1.1303 & maybe 1.1240.
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