Bias: Lack of follow-through higher yesterday leaves the downside vulnerable
Yesterday's gains stalled 6 pips above the 1.1499 resistance and since then there have been steady losses which do seem to put any bullish stance in the background. If there is any chance of another push higher then the 1.1380 lows must remain intact. Then a break back above 1.1442-73 will provide the basis for a break above yesterday's 1.1505 high and extend the rally to 1.1530-52 at least and probably 1.1579. Next major resistance is at 1.1631-52 & 1.1674.
2nd April: We may well have seen the top already at 1.1548 and only a move back above 1.1530-48 would maintain the potential for the recovery reaching 1.1579 and 1.1652-74. However, it does seem to be growing more unlikely.
The cap just 6 pips above the 1.1499 resistance and decline is threatening to allow the larger downtrend to resume. Still there are some support areas to break to provide final confirmation. A move below 1.1420-25 would extend the downside to 1.1380 again and while it may cause a correction I feel that we shall eventually see follow-through below the 1.1340-56 pivot support and corrective low. Once seen expect additional declines to 1.1222-40 which should hold for a correction. Next supports are at the 1.1157-67 lows.
1st April: If we reach the 1.1652-74 area I feel this will provide a cap and therefore look for a reversal pattern. Any earlier break below 1.1340 would threaten direct losses that should stall in the 1.1157-1.1222 area for a pullback and then lower again€¦
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