Bias: We should see a move lower but we will still have to take care
Yesterday's gains, while expected, were stronger than anticipated but I still feel that there is a good chance we have seen the high now. Only a break above 1.0704-13 would open up the 1.0732-53 resistance before turning lower. If this breaks then something else is happening and the risk will be much stronger for 1.0789 minimum and potentially a retest at 1.0832. Above thre note the swing high at 1.0882. More likely I feel there will be a drift lower to the 1.0605-24 area. Watch this as it should cause a pullback at least - so watch for a bullish reversal pattern.
28th August: Only a move back above 1.0720 now will return us to consolidation and a possible bullish structure…...
In spite of the deeper pullback I remain bearish and this is the preferred view. However, I'm not so sure today is going to confirm stronger losses. We have already seen a pullback to the 1.0645-50 support and I feel this will give way to extend losses to the 1.0624-30 pivot support and possibly as far as the 1.0605 pivot support also. I suspect this may well hold today's losses and cause a pullback higher. Thus, only a break of 1.0600-05 would imply a move back towards the 1.0531-43 lows. That needs to break to extend losses towards 1.0458.
2nd September: We did see a deeper pullback but the outlook for losses below 1.0531 to 1.0454 and probably 1.0334-54 remains the greater risk.
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