Bias: While 1.0268-82 supports the uptrend can resume back to 1.0452 initially else breach extends losses to 1.0184
The market is now forcing itself into a decision and I still see the 1.0268-82 area as the critical support. Watch for a bullish reversal pattern here. If seen trade the break and look for gains to break above the 1.0310-30 pivot resistance and then the 1.0359 corrective high seen yesterday to trigger follow-through above 1.0402 towards the 1.0452 high once again. Take care around here. However, it is possible to push a bit higher with resistance then seen at 1.0472 and then the 1.0530-40 pivot resistance. This should be the maximum we see today.
1st October: The push through to 1.0448, while still a valid resistance in a bearish structure, is a warning bell. Any move back above this high would stretch gains back to 1.0580 and 1.0670 and on an aggressive move the 1.0774 level is possible. Even this would only see a correction B4 higher.
We have come to the test I though would occur yesterday. Before getting too bearish wait for a break below the 1.0258-68 area. If seen it would suggest that we still have one more move lower in the larger downtrend and should then extend losses back to the area around the 1.0184 low. This would probably hold for a correction. Below 1.0170-84 would maintain the downward momentum more directly through 1.0139 and then into the larger target at 1.0040-72. However, this area (allow for 1.0030) should provide a long term low.
1st October: With the 1.0388 high having broken it does break the sequence of lower highs. Still with the 1.0448 level being a valid retracement level we cannot 100% say the downtrend is over. Below 1.0276-82 would resurrect a retest of 1.0184 and then the 1.0030-72 target range.
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