DAILY FORECAST FOR USDCHF 8th January 2010

Bias:     I feel there is probably risk of one final marginal low around 1.0217-33 before the uptrend resumes

Daily Bullish:

As I had warned we'll need a break above 1.0378 to really confirm the uptrend is back on course. Until then there is still risk that we could see one final marginal new low and I favor this to be around the 1.0217-33 area. If seen then watch for a bullish set up there. Only an earlier direct break above 1.0370-78 would trigger follow-through immediately and then look for a move through the 1.0420 peaks and onto the 1.0506 high. I wouldn't be too surprised if this move reached the daily pivot resistance around the 1.0540-60 area...

MT Bullish:

4th January:      There is no change to my view that we're to see the corrective upmove continue but we could see a holding pattern before the break above 1.0506. Only breach indicates a test of 1.0560 and a small risk of a short term cap. Larger targets remain at 1.0669 (favored) & 1.0825.

Daily Bearish: 

Cautiously I feel we should see a final move lower and a break below the 1.0317 low seen already could be the catalyst. Below here are potential stalling areas at 1.0284 and probably 1.0264. This support could provide a correction but once complete look for losses to extend into the 1.0217-33 support. Ideally I think this will hold for a larger reversal higher. Thus, only below 1.0210 would extend through to 1.0168-85 and at most 1.0141.

MT Bearish:

 7th January:   I remain basically bullish and prefer to wait for a test of the 1.0667 area at least. Only an earlier break below 1.0210 followed by 1.0140 would cause some concern and suggest slippage back to 1.0034-50 and possibly the 0.9959 corrective low.

For access to my daily support & resistance levels please see the Daily Forecast page of my web site For a full description of how to use the analysis please see the Analysis page of my website. The prior day's set ups for potential trading levels highlighted in the report are available on the Daily Forecast page of my web site along with a new report showing the prior day’s support & resistance levels.