Bias: While 92.77 holds I feel the risk remains higher for 93.70-77 and later 94.26
The 94.26 area still remains the intermediate target and I feel it should develop more directly but there is a mild risk that we see the correction recycle back to 92.77-80. More likely we should see the 93.27 peak break which should spur a rally through the 93.53 high and on to 93.70-77. Expect a pullback from there probably stalling around the 93.40-50 area. While this holds the next leg should be seen to the 94.26 target. Look for bearish trade set ups here for a correction lower.
If we are to see a second drop to 92.77-80 then a move below 93.00 would provoke follow-through. Then the 92.77-80 area appears to become critical. I still feel it will hold but if this proves wrong then a break here would revisit the 94.44 low at least. Take care this could cause a pullback. Below 92.44 would risk losses through the 92.20 corrective low and then I'd have to look for a recycling all the way back to the 90.84 corrective low.
Medium Term Outlook:
11th May: The pace of the rally has slowed and this concerns. To retain a direct bullish stance we'll need a break back above 93.53 and 94.24-55 to maintain the upwards momentum for 95.68 at least.
Only below 88.00-13 would suggest we're going to see resumption of the monthly downtrend.
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