Bias: There seems to be risk for a test of 91.35-40 but then lower to the 89.52 target
The 90.20 level held a second time, apart from 1 extra pip lower, and spent the day looking supported. The top at 91.12 looked as if it should be enough to send it lower but we're back close to that level and if we see this break then look for follow-through to 91.40 which I feel will hold fast and cause a reversal back lower. In the mean time the 90.61-78 area looks set to support and we could see some range trading ahead of European open. Only an unexpected break above 91.40 would trigger extension higher to 92.03-25 which would hold.
14th September: Friday's direct break lower basically brings the 88.39-52 and 88.83 targets into play. Most projections identify the higher range as the most likely target for a reversal higher. First target will be the 92.03-25 area.
The 90.90 resistance broke but price was then held by 91.12 but still the preferred downside didn't follow-through. Now we have to see whether we see direct follow-through lower or an earlier blip up to 91.40. Either way I remain bearish for 89.52. Thus, look for bearish reversal patterns at 91.40 or hopefully we'll see a shorter term triangle develop in the 90.60-91.12 range. If this breaks on the downside then look for follow-through down to the 90.19 low and subsequently the 89.52 target (max 89.39.) While there is a lower target at 88.82 I doubt we shall see this.
14th September: The downside targets are close - the favored being at 89.39-52 while there is a lower risk, but valid target at 88.83. In this broad area we should see a reversal higher. However, given the bearish daily momentum I feel this is likely to be a correction only.
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